ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Admission in the intensive care unit of the old patient with coronavirus disease 19 raises an ethical question concerning the scarce resources and their short-term mortality. METHODS: Patients aged over 60 from 7 different intensive care units admitted between March 1, 2020 and May 6, 2020, with a diagnosis of coronavirus disease 19 were included in the cohort. Twenty variables were collected during the admission, such as age, severity (Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II), several data on physiological status before intensive care unit comorbidities, evaluation of autonomy, frailty, and biological variables. The objective was to model the 30-day mortality with relevant variables, compute their odds ratio associated with their 95% CI, and produce a nomogram to easily estimate and communicate the 30-day mortality. The performance of the model was estimated with the area under the receiving operating curve. RESULTS: We included 231 patients, among them 60 (26.0%) patients have died on the 30th day. The relevant variables selected to explain the 30-day mortality were Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) score (0.82 [0.71-0.94]), age 1.12 (1.07-1.18), SAPS II 1.05 (1.02-1.08), and dementia 6.22 (1.00-38.58). A nomogram was computed to visually represent the final model. Area under the receiving operating curve was at 0.833 (0.776-0.889). CONCLUSIONS: Age, autonomy, dementia, and severity at admission were important predictive variables for the 30-day mortality status, and the nomogram could help the physician in the decision-making process and the communication with the family.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: With the spread of COVID-19 epidemic, health plans must be adapted continuously. There is an urgent need to define the best care courses of patients with COVID-19, especially in intensive care units (ICUs), according to their individualised benefit/risk ratio. Since older age is associated with poorer short-term and long-term outcomes, prediction models are needed, that may assist clinicians in their ICU admission decision. Senior-COVID-Rea was designed to evaluate, in patients over 60 years old admitted in ICU for severe COVID-19 disease, the impact of age and geriatric and paraclinical parameters on their mortality 30 days after ICU admission. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre survey protocol to be conducted in seven hospitals of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, France. All patients over 60 years old admitted in ICU for severe COVID-19 infection (or their legally acceptable representative) will be proposed to enter the study and to fill in a questionnaire regarding their functional and nutritional parameters 1 month before COVID-19 infection. Paraclinical parameters at ICU admission will be collected: lymphocytes and neutrophils counts, high-fluorescent lymphoid cells and immature granulocytes percentages (Sysmex data), D-dimers, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatinine, CT scan for lung extension rate as well as clinical resuscitation scores, and the delay between the first signs of infection and ICU admission. The primary outcome will be the overall survival at day 30 post-ICU admission. The analysis of factors predicting mortality at day 30 will be carried out using univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. Multivariate logistic regression will consider up to 15 factors.The ambition of this trial, which takes into account the different approaches of geriatric vulnerability, is to define the respective abilities of different operational criteria of frailty to predict patients' outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was ethically approved. The results of the primary and secondary objectives will be published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04422340.